It is my belief that the EU is attempting to wound the UK financial system both as punishment for Brexit and to deter other nations from leaving the EU. You may be thinking well duh, fair enough, but I’m not talking about when the UK is trying to negotiate a new deal with the EU, I’m talking about right now.
Now before I tell you how the EU is attempting to do this I need to explain something first, it’s called the self-fulfilling prophecy.
The self-fulfilling prophecy, a trope used in fiction but prevalent in real life as well. It can be best described as, a false statement that causes people to behave in such a way as to make the previously false statement true.
Though I dislike that definition because of the word false, a prediction or prophecy cannot be considered false until after it has failed to occur, until that point it is both true and false, similar to how Schrödinger’s cat is both alive and dead. Instead I prefer this definition.
The statement of the effect becomes the cause of the effect.
The prediction of the effect is the cause of the effect.
There’s a reason most of you are scratching your heads thinking huh? It’s because this is a tricky concept to put into words let alone to contemplate. But to help you understand it I’ve come up with an example.
In this example you have a business floating on the stock market, a room full of potential investors and a speaker. The business isn’t worth much, it hasn’t got any planned changes and the market it is in is stable. Now the speaker goes into the room full of potential investors and says that this business’s stock is going to shoot up. The investors see that the stock is currently low so they buy a bunch of stock quickly to maximise their gains when it increases. When the investors buy the cheap stock the supply of it goes down whilst the demand goes up, this causes the stock to rise in price. This causes more people to buy this stock because it’s rising, thus it rises even higher. The speaker is then proven correct, he stated an effect and by doing was the effects cause.
I used that as an example because it’s in the financial world that this form of cause and effect occurs most often due to the prevalence of speculation in the industry, but this can be seen elsewhere such as in the media where saying that a politician will be involved in a scandal causes them to try to prevent this but the prevention itself becomes a scandal. It’s also quite common for shops to use this tactic, they might state that an item is going to sell quickly so customers better buy it quickly before they’re all gone, this causes customers to buy it quickly making it sell quickly.
Okay I hear you saying but what does this have to do with the EU? Allow me to explain. Yesterday as I sat down with my tea I read an article on the BBC. Now I dislike the BBC, it’s very left-wing but it does tend to report the facts of major stories, so I still read it if only to get a varied perspective on the world. The article was this, ‘UK economy to slow down, says European Commission.’
The article states that the European Commission, an institution of the EU, forecasts a reduce in UK economic growth, 1.5% this year, and 1.2% in 2018. Of course the commission also forecasts the Eurozone to grow over this same period, 1.6% this year, and 1.8% next year. If this smells like bull to you it’s because it is.
Now I admit, I’m biased on this issue so I would recommend you to do your own research as well, now that I’ve put in that little disclaimer let me explain my viewpoint.
The EU is floundering, the leave vote of the UK has torn a hole in the side and officials cannot bail water out fast enough. Of course the EU was taking on water long before that. The financial crisis led to the European debt crisis which put governments and economies within the EU into turmoil. When Angela Merkel opened the flood gates to millions of un-vetted migrants the situation only worsened, thousands of sex attacks committed by migrants, continued terrorist attacks throughout europe as a direct result. This has only fueled a rise in populism and nationalism. It’s debatable whether Brexit will soon be followed by a Frexit, Grexit and/or Nexit but the likelihood only continues to rise.
Another factor that spells doom for the EU is the election of Donald Trump as the US President. Trump has signalled the death of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and it is highly likely he will kill its successor the Trade In Services Agreement (TISA.)
The UK and it’s future on the other hand keep looking brighter and brighter. Despite the myriad of economic forecasts that said the UK was going to crash and burn as a result of Brexit the opposite occurred. In 2016, in particular as a result of the last two quarters post Brexit, the UK economy grew by a staggering 2%. Now whilst that could be considered a fluke, it is the opposite reaction everyone said to expect for the period.
In the run up to the referendum Obama said the UK would be at the back of the queue when it came to trade deals, now Trump’s President we’re pretty close to the front of the queue. Not only that but the UK has got two other major trade deals to be created once the country has left the EU, one with Australia and another with China.
Investors know that now is the time to invest in the UK, as we’ve seen already from the FTSE 100’s continued rise since Brexit, Apple’s investments, and many others. Of course some investors are more worried than others and in some areas investment has fallen, but overall the UK keeps looking better.
Institutions such as the European Commission have been proven wrong multiple times. Whilst it would be naive to expect them to be right all the time the cynic in me recognises a plan when I see one. The EU has been sending out continuous financial warnings and scares about the UK and Brexit in an attempt to dissuade investors and thus lower the UK’s economic growth. They are seeking to be the cause of the effect they predict.
I cannot say what the future of the UK will be, but I believe, in part based on facts and in part upon me being tied to this ship, that the will be bright.
Have a great day folks.